Testing the intrinsic mechanisms driving the dynamics of Ross River Virus across Australia.

The mechanisms driving dynamics of many epidemiologically important mosquito-borne pathogens are complex, involving combinations of vector and host factors (e.g., species composition and life-history traits), and factors associated with transmission and reporting. Understanding which intrinsic mechanisms contribute most to observed disease dynamics is important, yet often poorly understood. Ross River virus (RRV) is Australia's most important mosquito-borne disease, with variable transmission dynamics across geographic regions. We used deterministic ordinary differential equation models to test mechanisms driving RRV dynamics across major epidemic centers in Brisbane, Darwin, Mandurah, Mildura, Gippsland, Renmark, Murray Bridge, and Coorong. We considered models with up to two vector species (Aedes vigilax, Culex annulirostris, Aedes camptorhynchus, Culex globocoxitus), two reservoir hosts (macropods, possums), seasonal transmission effects, and transmission parameters. We fit models against long-term RRV surveillance data (1991-2017) and used Akaike Information Criterion to select important mechanisms. The combination of two vector species, two reservoir hosts, and seasonal transmission effects explained RRV dynamics best across sites. Estimated vector-human transmission rate (average ß = 8.04x10-4per vector per day) was similar despite different dynamics. Models estimate 43% underreporting of RRV infections. Findings enhance understanding of RRV transmission mechanisms, provide disease parameter estimates which can be used to guide future research into public health improvements and offer a basis to evaluate mitigation practices.

On the prediction of SAV transmission among Norwegian aquaculture sites.

Pancreas Disease (PD) is a viral disease that affects Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in Norwegian, Scottish and Irish aquaculture. It is caused by salmonid alphavirus (SAV) and represents a significant problem in salmonid farming. Infection with SAV leads to reduced growth, mortality, product downgrading, and has a significant financial impact for the farms. The overall aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of various factors on the transmission of SAV and to create a predictive model capable of providing an early warning system for salmon farms within the Norwegian waters. Using a combination of publicly available databases, specifically BarentsWatch, and privately held PCR analyses a feature set consisting of 11 unique features was created based on the input parameters of the databases. An ensemble model was developed based on this feature set using XG-Boost, Ada-Boost, Random Forest and a Multilayer Perceptron. It was possible to successfully predict SAV transmission with 94.4% accuracy. Moreover, it was possible to predict SAV transmission 8 weeks in advance of a 'PD registration' at individual aquaculture salmon farming sites. Important predictors included well boat movement, environmental factors, proximity to sites with a 'PD registration' and seasonality.

Low Risk for Ross River Virus Infection in Expeditionary Forces Training in Australia Demonstrated by a Serological Survey of Marine Rotational Force-Darwin, 2012-2018.

On an annual basis, approximately 2,500 U.S. Marines and Sailors deploy to Australia on 6-month training rotations. Active duty personnel are generally immunologically naïve to pathogens endemic to tropical Australia, a vulnerability that could significantly impact medical readiness. To estimate risk, we screened 628 post-deployment serum samples by ELISA for serological evidence of infection with Ross River virus (RRV), a mosquito-borne alphavirus endemic to tropical Australia. Samples that tested above the negative cutoff value were paired with their pre-deployment samples to identify deployment-related seroconversion. These paired samples were further investigated with a live virus neutralization assay to assess specificity. There was a single RRV seroconversion and 49 false-positive results. In the context of these analyses (i.e., limited sample numbers collected between the months of March and October), we assess the RRV risk to MRFD as low and encourage strategies such as avoiding and preventing mosquito bites to mitigate the existing risk over widespread vaccination programs, if an FDA-approved vaccine becomes available. The Panbio RRV ELISA lacks the specificity to draw conclusions based on seropositivity from large-scale surveys of U.S. personnel.

Differential Susceptibility of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus Mosquitoes to Infection by Mayaro Virus Strains.

Mayaro virus (MAYV) is an arthropod-borne virus (arbovirus) belonging to the family Togaviridae, genus Alphavirus. In recent years, the geographic distribution of MAYV may have expanded north from South and Central America into the Caribbean Islands. Although Haemagogus janthinomys is considered the main vector for MAYV, the virus has also been isolated from other mosquitoes, including Aedes aegypti, a widespread species that serves as the main vector for highly epidemic viruses. Given the possible expansion and outbreaks of MAYV in Latin America, it is possible that MAYV might be adapting to be efficiently transmitted by urban vectors. Therefore, to investigate this possibility, we evaluated the vector competence of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes to transmit MAYV isolated during a year of low or high MAYV transmission. Adult Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus were orally infected with the MAYV strains, and the infection, dissemination, and transmission rates were calculated to evaluate their vector competence. Overall, we found higher infection, dissemination, and transmission rates in both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes infected with the strain isolated during a MAYV outbreak, whereas low/no transmission was detected with the strain isolated during a year of low MAYV activity. Our results confirmed that both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus are competent vectors for the emergent MAYV. Our data suggest that strains isolated during MAYV outbreaks might be better fit to infect and be transmitted by urban vectors, raising serious concern about the epidemic potential of MAYV.

The first confirmed outbreak of Barmah Forest virus in Tasmania - 2019.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the first outbreak of Barmah Forest virus (BFv) in Tasmania and identify potential vectors for BFv in Tasmania. METHODS: A retrospective descriptive study of BFv notifications in the Tasmanian Notifiable Diseases Database (TNDD) was conducted. Adult mosquitoes were sampled from areas near outbreak cases and pooled samples were tested for BFv. RESULTS: 27 cases of confirmed BFv were recorded in the TNDD between 12 March 1999 and 30 June 2019. Nine cases were recorded between 21 January and 10 May 2019 that were acquired in Tasmania, with eight included in this confirmed outbreak. All outbreak cases resided in or travelled to locations in the Break O'Day Local Government Area and reported no recent interstate travel. No virus was detected in pooled mosquito samples. CONCLUSIONS: This is Tasmania's first confirmed outbreak of BFv. Known BFv vector species were identified in both saltmarsh and urban-fringe brackish saltmarsh larval habitats. BFv was not detected from pooled mosquito samples. IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH: Clinicians should consider BFv as a possible diagnosis for presentations with fever and arthritis, and potential mosquito exposure in Tasmania. These findings will guide broadening of prevention-focussed public health messaging.

Predictive modelling of Ross River virus using climate data in the Darling Downs.

Ross River virus (RRV) is the most common mosquito-borne infection in Australia. RRV disease is characterised by joint pain and lethargy, placing a substantial burden on individual patients, the healthcare system and economy. This burden is compounded by a lack of effective treatment or vaccine for the disease. The complex RRV disease ecology cycle includes a number of reservoirs and vectors that inhabit a range of environments and climates across Australia. Climate is known to influence humans, animals and the environment and has previously been shown to be useful to RRV prediction models. We developed a negative binomial regression model to predict monthly RRV case numbers and outbreaks in the Darling Downs region of Queensland, Australia. Human RRV notifications and climate data for the period July 2001 - June 2014 were used for model training. Model predictions were tested using data for July 2014 - June 2019. The final model was moderately effective at predicting RRV case numbers (Pearson's r = 0.427) and RRV outbreaks (accuracy = 65%, sensitivity = 59%, specificity = 73%). Our findings show that readily available climate data can provide timely prediction of RRV outbreaks.

Prediction of Ross River virus incidence in Queensland, Australia: building and comparing models.

Transmission of Ross River virus (RRV) is influenced by climatic, environmental, and socio-economic factors. Accurate and robust predictions based on these factors are necessary for disease prevention and control. However, the complicated transmission cycle and the characteristics of RRV notification data present challenges. Studies to compare model performance are lacking. In this study, we used RRV notification data and exposure data from 2001 to 2020 in Queensland, Australia, and compared ten models (including generalised linear models, zero-inflated models, and generalised additive models) to predict RRV incidence in different regions of Queensland. We aimed to compare model performance and to evaluate the effect of statistical over-dispersion and zero-inflation of RRV surveillance data, and non-linearity of predictors on model fit. A variable selection strategy for screening important predictors was developed and was found to be efficient and able to generate consistent and reasonable numbers of predictors across regions and in all training sets. Negative binomial models generally exhibited better model fit than Poisson models, suggesting that over-dispersion in the data is the primary factor driving model fit compared to non-linearity of predictors and excess zeros. All models predicted the peak periods well but were unable to fit and predict the magnitude of peaks, especially when there were high numbers of cases. Adding new variables including historical RRV cases and mosquito abundance may improve model performance. The standard negative binomial generalised linear model is stable, simple, and effective in prediction, and is thus considered the best choice among all models.

Seroconversion of anti-Getah virus antibody among Japanese native Noma horses around 2012.

Getah virus (GETV), an arthropod-borne virus transmitted by mosquitoes, has been isolated from several animals. GETV infection in horses shows clinical signs such as fever, rash, and edema in the leg. Noma horses are one of the eight Japanese native horses. The present study aimed to clarify the occurrence of GETV infection in Noma horses. Serum samples collected from Noma horses were analyzed using a virus neutralization test and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and showed that the anti-GETV antibody titers in the samples collected in 2017 were significantly higher than those collected in 2012. We concluded that a seroconversion of anti-GETV antibodies was occurred in the Noma horse population around 2012, providing evidence of the GETV epidemic in Japan circa 2012.

Spatio-temporal distribution of vector borne diseases in Australia and Papua New Guinea vis-à-vis climatic factors.

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES: Weather and climate are directly linked to human health including the distribution and occurrence of vector-borne diseases which are of significant concern for public health. METHODS: In this review, studies on spatiotemporal distribution of dengue, Barmah Forest Virus (BFV) and Ross River Virus (RRV) in Australia and malaria in Papua New Guinea (PNG) under the influence of climate change and/ or human society conducted in the past two decades were analysed and summarised. Environmental factors such as temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and tides were the main contributors from climate. RESULTS: The Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) index (a product from the Australian Bureau of Statistics that ranks areas in Australia according to relative socio-economic advantage and disadvantage) was important in evaluating contribution from human society. INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSION: For future studies, more emphasis on evaluation of impact of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and human society on spatio-temporal distribution of vector borne diseases is recommended to highlight importance of the environmental factors in spreading mosquito-borne diseases in Australia and PNG.

Epidemiological Study of Multiple Zoonotic Mosquito-Borne Alphaviruses in Horses in Queensland, Australia (2018-2020).

The increased frequency of extreme weather events due to climate change has complicated the epidemiological pattern of mosquito-borne diseases, as the host and vector dynamics shift to adapt. However, little is known about the seroprevalence of common mosquito-borne virus infections in horses in Australia. In this study, serological surveys for multiple alphaviruses were performed on samples taken from 622 horses across two horse populations (racehorses and horses residing on The University of Queensland (UQ) campus) in Queensland using the gold standard virus neutralization test. As is the case in humans across Australia, Ross River virus (RRV) is the most common arbovirus infection in horses, followed by Barmah Forest virus, with an overall apparent seroprevalence of 48.6% (302/622) and 4.3% (26/607), respectively. Horses aged over 6 years old (OR 1.86, p = 0.01) and residing at UQ (OR 5.8, p < 0.001) were significantly associated with seroconversion to RRV. A significant medium correlation (r = 0.626, p < 0.001) between RRV and Getah virus (GETV) neutralizing antibody titers was identified. Collectively, these results advance the current epidemiological knowledge of arbovirus exposure in a susceptible host in Australia. The potential use of horses as sentinels for arbovirus monitoring should be considered. Furthermore, since GETV is currently exotic to Australia, antibodies cross-reactivity between RRV and GETV should be further investigated for cross-protection, which may also help to inform vaccine developments.

Epidemiological and Genomic Characterisation of Middelburg and Sindbis Alphaviruses Identified in Horses with Febrile and Neurological Infections, South Africa (2014-2018).

Although Old World alphaviruses, Middelburg- (MIDV) and Sindbis virus (SINV), have previously been detected in horses and wildlife with neurologic disease in South Africa, the pathogenesis and clinical presentation of MIDV and SINV infections in animals are not well documented. Clinical samples from horses across South Africa with acute or fatal neurologic and febrile infections submitted between 2014-2018 were investigated. In total, 69/1084 (6.36%) and 11/1084 (1.01%) horses tested positive for MIDV and SINV, respectively, by real-time reverse transcription (RT) PCR. Main signs/outcomes for MIDV (n = 69): 73.91% neurological, 75.36% fever, 28.99% icterus and anorexia, respectively, 8.70% fatalities; SINV (n = 11): 54.54% neurological, 72.73% fever, 36.36% anorexia and 18.18% fatalities. MIDV cases peaked in the late summer/autumn across most South African provinces while SINV cases did not show a clear seasonality and were detected in fewer South African provinces. MIDV could still be detected in blood samples via RT-PCR for up to 71,417 and 21 days after onset of signs in 4 horses respectively, suggesting prolonged replication relative to SINV which could only be detected in the initial sample. Phylogenetic analyses based on partial sequences of the nsP4 (MIDV n = 59 and SINV n = 7) and E1 (MIDV n = 45) genes, as well as full genome sequences (MIDV n = 6), clustered the MIDV and SINV strains from the present study with previously detected strains. MIDV infection appears to be more prevalent in horses than SINV infection based on RT-PCR results, however, prevalence estimates might be different when also considering serological surveillance data.

Sindbis virus outbreak and evidence for geographical expansion in Finland, 2021.

Sindbis virus (SINV) caused a large outbreak in Finland in 2021 with 566 laboratory-confirmed human cases and a notable geographical expansion. Compared with the last large outbreak in 2002, incidence was higher in several hospital districts but lower in traditionally endemic locations in eastern parts of the country. A high incidence is also expected in 2022. Awareness of SINV should be raised in Finland to increase recognition of the disease and prevent transmission through the promotion of control measures.

First confirmation of salmonid alphavirus infection in rainbow trout in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia.

Sleeping disease is a highly infectious viral disease caused by salmonid alphavirus subtype 2 (SAV2 FW), affecting mainly rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss farmed in freshwater. During March to May 2014, disease episodes with clinical signs of sleeping disease in rainbow trout fingerlings occurred almost simultaneously in 2 trout farms located in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) and Serbia. The infection of rainbow trout with SAV2 FW in 2 farms was confirmed by virus isolation and molecular methods. This is the first isolation and molecular characterization of SAV2 FW in BiH and Serbia.

Mayaro Virus: The State-of-the-Art for Antiviral Drug Development.

Mayaro virus is an emerging arbovirus that causes nonspecific febrile illness or arthralgia syndromes similar to the Chikungunya virus, a virus closely related from the Togaviridae family. MAYV outbreaks occur more frequently in the northern and central-western states of Brazil; however, in recent years, virus circulation has been spreading to other regions. Due to the undifferentiated initial clinical symptoms between MAYV and other endemic pathogenic arboviruses with geographic overlapping, identification of patients infected by MAYV might be underreported. Additionally, the lack of specific prophylactic approaches or antiviral drugs limits the pharmacological management of patients to treat symptoms like pain and inflammation, as is the case with most pathogenic alphaviruses. In this context, this review aims to present the state-of-the-art regarding the screening and development of compounds/molecules which may present anti-MAYV activity and infection inhibition.

Weather extremes associated with increased Ross River virus and Barmah Forest virus notifications in NSW: learnings for public health response.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the sequence of environmental and entomological events prior to a substantial increase in Ross River virus (RRV) and Barmah Forest virus (BFV) notifications with a view to informing future public health response. METHODS: Rainfall, tidal, mosquito and human arboviral notification data were analysed to determine the temporality of events. RESULTS: Following two extremely dry years, there was a substantial increase in the abundance of mosquitoes along coastal New South Wales (NSW) two weeks after a significant rainfall event and high tides in February 2020. Subsequently, RRV and BFV notifications in north east NSW began to increase eight and nine weeks respectively after the high rainfall, with RRV notifications peaking 12 weeks after the high rainfall. CONCLUSIONS: Mosquito bite avoidance messaging should be instigated within two weeks of high summer rainfall, especially after an extended dry period. IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH: Intense summertime rain events, which are expected to increase in frequency in south-east Australia with climate change, can lead to significant increases in arboviral disease. These events need to be recognised by public health practitioners to facilitate timely public health response. This has taken on added importance since the emergence of Japanese encephalitis virus in southeastern Australia in 2022.

Associations between temperature and Ross river virus infection: A systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological evidence.

Ross River virus (RRV) infection is one of the emerging and prevalent arboviral diseases in Australia and the Pacific Islands. Although many studies have been conducted to establish the relationship between temperature and RRV infection, there has been no comprehensive review of the association so far. In this study, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the effect of temperature on RRV transmission. We searched PubMed, Scopus, Embase, and Web of Science with additional lateral searches from references. The quality and strength of evidence from the included studies were evaluated following the Navigation Guide framework. We have qualitatively synthesized the evidence and conducted a meta-analysis to pool the relative risks (RRs) of RRV infection per 1 °C increase in temperature. Subgroup analyses were performed by climate zones, temperature metrics, and lag periods. A total of 17 studies met the inclusion criteria, of which six were included in the meta-analysis The meta-analysis revealed that the overall RR for the association between temperature and the risk of RRV infection was 1.09 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 1.17). Subgroup analyses by climate zones showed an increase in RRV infection per 1 °C increase in temperature in humid subtropical and cold semi-arid climate zones. The overall quality of evidence was "moderate" and we rated the strength of evidence to be "limited", warranting additional evidence to reduce uncertainty. The results showed that the risk of RRV infection is positively associated with temperature. However, the risk varies across different climate zones, temperature metrics and lag periods. These findings indicate that future studies on the association between temperature and RRV infection should consider local and regional climate, socio-demographic, and environmental factors to explore vulnerability at local and regional levels.

Seroprevalence of dengue, Zika, chikungunya and Ross River viruses across the Solomon Islands.

Across the Pacific, and including in the Solomon Islands, outbreaks of arboviruses such as dengue, chikungunya, and Zika are increasing in frequency, scale and impact. Outbreaks of mosquito-borne disease have the potential to overwhelm the health systems of small island nations. This study mapped the seroprevalence of dengue, Zika, chikungunya and Ross River viruses in 5 study sites in the Solomon Islands. Serum samples from 1,021 participants were analysed by ELISA. Overall, 56% of participants were flavivirus-seropositive for dengue (28%), Zika (1%) or both flaviviruses (27%); and 53% of participants were alphavirus-seropositive for chikungunya (3%), Ross River virus (31%) or both alphaviruses (18%). Seroprevalence for both flaviviruses and alphaviruses varied by village and age of the participant. The most prevalent arboviruses in the Solomon Islands were dengue and Ross River virus. The high seroprevalence of dengue suggests that herd immunity may be a driver of dengue outbreak dynamics in the Solomon Islands. Despite being undetected prior to this survey, serology results suggest that Ross River virus transmission is endemic. There is a real need to increase the diagnostic capacities for each of the arboviruses to support effective case management and to provide timely information to inform vector control efforts and other outbreak mitigation interventions.

Detection and genome characterization of Middelburg virus strains isolated from CSF and whole blood samples of humans with neurological manifestations in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: The Old world Alphavirus, Middelburg virus (MIDV), is not well known and although a few cases associated with animal illness have previously been described from Southern Africa, there has been no investigation into the association of the virus with human illness. The current study aimed to investigate possible association of MIDV infection with febrile or neurological manifestations in hospitalized or symptomatic patients fromGauteng, South Africa. METHODS: This study is a descriptive retrospective and prospective laboratory based study. Archived cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples submitted to the National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS), Tshwane Academic division for viral investigation from public sector hospitals in Gauteng as well as EDTA (ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid) whole blood samples from ad hoc cases of veterinary students, presenting with neurological and febrile illness, were selected and screened for the presence of alphaviruses using real-time reverse transcription(rtRT) PCR.Virus isolations from rtRT-PCR positive samples were conducted in Vero cell culture and used to obtain full genome sequences. Basic descriptive statistical analysis was conducted using EpiInfo. RESULTS: MIDV was detected by rtRT-PCR in 3/187 retrospective CSF specimens obtained from the NHLS from hospitalised patients in the Tshwane region of Gauteng and 1/2 EDTA samples submitted in the same year (2017) from ad hoc query arbovirus cases from veterinary students from the Faculty of Veterinary Science University of Pretoria.Full genome sequences were obtained for virus isolates from two cases; one from an EDTA whole blood sample (ad hoc case) and another from a CSF sample (NHLS sample).Two of the four Middelburg virus positive cases,for which clinical information was available, had other comorbidities or infections at the time of infection. CONCLUSION: Detection of MIDV in CSF of patients with neurological manifestations suggests that the virus should be investigated as a human pathogen with the potential of causing or contributing to neurological signs in children and adults.

Serological Positivity against Selected Flaviviruses and Alphaviruses in Free-Ranging Bats and Birds from Costa Rica Evidence Exposure to Arboviruses Seldom Reported Locally in Humans.

Arboviruses have two ecological transmission cycles: sylvatic and urban. For some, the sylvatic cycle has not been thoroughly described in America. To study the role of wildlife in a putative sylvatic cycle, we sampled free-ranging bats and birds in two arbovirus endemic locations and analyzed them using molecular, serological, and histological methods. No current infection was detected, and no significant arbovirus-associated histological changes were observed. Neutralizing antibodies were detected against selected arboviruses. In bats, positivity in 34.95% for DENV-1, 16.26% for DENV-2, 5.69% for DENV-3, 4.87% for DENV-4, 2.43% for WNV, 4.87% for SLEV, 0.81% for YFV, 7.31% for EEEV, and 0.81% for VEEV was found. Antibodies against ZIKV were not detected. In birds, PRNT results were positive against WNV in 0.80%, SLEV in 5.64%, EEEV in 8.4%, and VEEV in 5.63%. An additional retrospective PRNT analysis was performed using bat samples from three additional DENV endemic sites resulting in a 3.27% prevalence for WNV and 1.63% for SLEV. Interestingly, one sample resulted unequivocally WNV positive confirmed by serum titration. These results suggest that free-ranging bats and birds are exposed to not currently reported hyperendemic-human infecting Flavivirus and Alphavirus; however, their role as reservoirs or hosts is still undetermined.

Serological Responses in Patients Infected with Mayaro Virus and Evaluation of Cross-Protective Responses against Chikungunya Virus.

Mayaro virus (MAYV) is an alphavirus endemic to both Latin America and the Caribbean. Recent reports have questioned the ability of MAYV and its close relative, Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), to generate cross-reactive, neutralizing antibodies to one another. Since CHIKV was introduced to South America in 2013, discerning whether individuals have cross-reactive antibodies or whether they have had exposures to both viruses previously has been difficult. Using samples obtained from people infected with MAYV prior to the introduction of CHIKV in the Americas, we performed neutralizing assays and observed no discernable neutralization of CHIKV by sera from patients previously infected with MAYV. These data suggest that a positive CHIKV neutralization test cannot be attributed to prior exposure to MAYV and that previous exposure to MAYV may not be protective against a subsequent CHIKV infection.